🔗 Share this article A Prediction Market Participant Earned $436K from Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. An individual made nearly half a million dollars by predicting the removal of Venezuela's president shortly prior to it was officially announced, sparking debate about potential gains made from non-public details of the US operation. Market Movement in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a crypto-powered platform, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month surged in the time leading up to President Donald Trump announced on the weekend that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. A particular user, which joined the platform recently and placed four wagers, all on political events in Venezuela, earned over $436,000 from a starting bet of $32,537. The identity is unknown. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before News Break Market statistics shows that participants estimated the likelihood of the president's removal at just 6.5% in the late afternoon of Friday, January 2nd. Yet the odds had increased to eleven percent by late Friday night and spiked dramatically in the morning of January 3rd, pointing to a sudden change in betting activity just before the social media post was made. "This specific wager has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," said a financial reform advocate. A handful of other platform users also earned significant sums from bets on the same outcome. Political Attention Intensifies Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. Proposed legislation introduced on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from participating on prediction markets if they have "insider details" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Event-driven betting sites have surged in popularity in the past few years, with users able to predict everything from sports outcomes to politics. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. But it has found a more favorable environment during the current presidency. Insider trading is a crime in the securities markets, but there are less oversight in the prediction market space. A spokesperson for a competing service said their site "has clear rules against insider trading of any form."