Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
